Review of 3rd Quarter

U.S. Stocks continued their recovery during the third quarter, increasing in value by 9%.  However, September looked quite different than the previous two months, as stocks rose by 13% during July and August, but fell by 4% during September.  Forei...

September 1, 2020

After an outstanding stock market recovery in the 2nd quarter, stocks have continued to rise over the past two months – the S&P 500 went up by 13% in July and August, meaning that stocks have now increased in value by 36%* the past five months.  International stocks ha...

July 2, 2020

Review of 2nd Quarter

The rapid recovery in stock market values over the past three months has been nearly unprecedented. Only once in the history of the S&P 500 – 1st quarter of 1975 – has the quarterly return exceeded the 21% return in April, May, and June. Other mark...

June 2, 2020

The S&P 500 rose by 4% in May, which means a 17% increase in value over the past two months. That large of an increase in light of the economic hardship many businesses and individuals are facing is causing some investors and analysts to question the rationality of cur...

May 1, 2020

In December of 1991, as the U.S economy was recovering from a relatively mild recession, the S&P 500 increased in value by 11%.  That was the largest monthly return in the stock market over the past 30 years – until last month.  The S&P 500 gained 13% in April, startin...

April 7, 2020


We’re an investment advisory firm, and it’s our duty to provide perspective on the capital markets as it relates to our clients’ portfolios. However, we aren’t blind to the enormity of the human tragedy with respect to people’s health and individual economic...

March 26, 2020

As of this writing, stocks have gained 16% over the past three days. The headlines in the financial press this morning focused on the stock market.  For many of our clients, there was even more good news that was barely reported by financial writers. Over the past week...

March 16, 2020

Because of the events of this weekend, the U.S. stock market will likely open tomorrow down from Friday.  Where it will end up by the end of the day is very uncertain.  All of us in the world want safety, and 10% daily swings up and down do little to calm anyone.  All...

The goal of this commentary is to assess the potential magnitude of the decline of the aggregate value of companies caused by the epidemic. We’ll use a basic quantitative valuation model and assess the impacts on the results of the model of various assumptions. If this...

February 26, 2020

First a disclaimer.  The impact of the coronavirus on the stock market is not the first-order important story.  The effect of the epidemic on lives, health, and social welfare is THE story.  But we are an investment firm, and our clients have reasonable questions about...

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Oakland, CA 94607



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