Review of 3rd Quarter

U.S. Stocks continued their recovery during the third quarter, increasing in value by 9%.  However, September looked quite different than the previous two months, as stocks rose by 13% during July and August, but fell by 4% during September.  Forei...

The goal of this commentary is to assess the potential magnitude of the decline of the aggregate value of companies caused by the epidemic. We’ll use a basic quantitative valuation model and assess the impacts on the results of the model of various assumptions. If this...

Investment advisors commonly warn their clients about the risks of changing strategies –  those warnings are frequently unheeded, because it is all so tempting to switch.  You’re in a conversation with a neighbor, who brings up a hot mutual fund she owns, having out-pe...

Earlier this week, Bill Gross, the founder and Chief Investment Officer of PIMCO, one of the leading bond management companies, provided his viewpoint on bond and equity markets in the future.  He led off his commentary by saying “the cult of equity is dying,” describe...

First of all, let me disclose that I love Facebook.  It’s a great medium, and I use it to communicate with many family and friends, and keep up with long lost acquaintances from high school and college.  And let me also disclose that I have absolutely no idea what is t...

My commentary two weeks ago on the myth of the “election cycle theory” generated many questions from our clients; all along the lines of “what about the (insert your hypothesis here) theory?” The two most common “theories” asked about were the Super Bowl theory and the...

A few weeks ago I wrote that the extreme stock market volatility that occurred during the second half of 2011 seemed to have subsided. That trend has continued since then. The biggest single day decline of the S&P 500 in January was 0.6%. During the last 6 months of 20...

Usually, when you are in a noisy room, and the noise subsides, it takes a while to realize that it has gotten quiet. But that sound you are hearing in the stock market lately is the sound of silence. Since December 21, the annualized volatility of the S&P 500 has been...

U.S. stock market indexes declined yesterday by more than 3% in reaction to Italy’s financial troubles.  Specific concerns are that Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s resignation will not be enough to bolster confidence in the economy.  The government’s borrowing rate...

Nearly all of the analyses of the recent movements of the U.S. and world equity markets are focused on the European economy, and nearly all of the analyses of Europe are based on the troubling Greek financial crisis.  The common reason given for last week’s 6% decline...

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